Throw away your mask?

Now is not the time to throw away your masks and party in the streets with your friends. We have about a month to go before we really get past COVID. All the gleeful opening up could easily create another wave. I see a tiny uptick in the data which could be the front of one forming now.

A tiny uptick is not the same as a trend, but it’s exactly what would happen when a trend starts. The main thing that drives waves of infection is the minute differences in timing between two exponential processes (disease vs. human response). You can snuff the next wave right now. If you wait till there’s a clear trend, it will be too late.